It's going to be much better than last summer and better than the holiday season. Unfortunately, this has gone on for over a year. MURRAY: I think all the airlines are working towards that. SHAPIRO: Do you think this is the new reality? Or are things likely to subside after we get through the peak of the summer travel season and everybody kind of gets their pent-up pandemic desire to go somewhere out of their system? There are socioeconomic issues that we're hoping to address diversity wise, you know, as we move into the future. There's been furloughs, and a lot of it has to do with the cost and time involved. I think the airlines, for the last, you know, few decades, have gone through their ups and downs. Why aren't there are enough people to actually do the job? SHAPIRO: I'm kind of surprised the pool is shrinking because I remember in elementary school, every friend of mine wanted to grow up to be a pilot. So the airlines have to be very proactive, and they're really - you know, everybody's competing for the same shrinking pool. In the short term, you know, it takes 60 to 90 days to interview, hire and put a pilot through training. And there aren't enough people entering for the demands throughout the end of the decade, and that's going to be a challenge. SHAPIRO: But when you look at things like, you know, pilot school, training programs, things like that, are there enough people getting the skills necessary to eventually become a pilot six months, a year, five years from now? You know, it's kind of everything's coming together at once. So it's going to be whoever offers the most competitive contract, the most lucrative contract. A lot of prospective pilots really have their choice of where to go. All of the major airlines are negotiating new contracts. MURRAY: Right now, we're at an inflection point in the industry.

SHAPIRO: I imagine being a pilot is not like being a barista, where a few days' training can be enough to let you start the job. And then, as you mentioned in the lead-in, having thousands of pilots take early outs, it put us in a very precarious situation, and now all of the airlines are trying to catch up. The pandemic sort of gave us a short-term reprieve, but the real problem was still there. We kind of forecast that this was going to be an issue. MURRAY: Well, we started looking at pilot shortages even in 2018, 2019. SHAPIRO: Why is the pool of pilots shrinking even as demand for air travel grows? So now that people are flying again, why hasn't pilot hiring caught up? Captain Casey Murray is president of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, and he's here to talk about what's going on right now. During the pandemic, thousands of pilots took early retirement packages when people stopped traveling. If delays and cancellations seem like the norm at this moment, well, there are lots of reasons for that. And judging by my social media feeds, lots of people are having the same experience right now. In the span of two weeks, I've had flights canceled twice, once to London, once to Boston.

Southwest airlines pilot